No question, all over the world, governments, announcing drastic cost-cutting concepts in their country, triggered a storm of indignation in the population. The Greek government to Giorgos Papandreou was not the first that got the feel. In Iceland had shown long before, which ultimately caused primarily by irresponsible financial services cause public debt, if politicians want to take it at the end of the population with severe austerity measures and tax increases to account. (1) (2)
Whether Iceland, Greece , Portugal , Spain , Italy , UK , Germany or Japan - after the government banks all and save in a real economy, the national debt in the amount of money launching noise sought, they now see their salvation apparently solely on the contrary, the excessive saving and the saving in the wrong place. More and more citizens are now aware that it is they who finance with their tax money and bank bailouts and Packages-cyclical and now that their governments far more than it spent by the fiscal situation would have allowed, actually pay the bill. Keynesianism, if it's still not work out, in the end may be cynical conclusion of this period of political experimentation. For the near-collapse of European markets in early May, of which the ECB recently reported and the ECB and EU Member States once again to rapid, exceptional support measures urged, shows impressively how close financial markets and economy are still a crash.
What stirs but in a special way the anger of the population, is the fact that the "saved" them come to the will of the politicians around the world with a disproportionately small contribution like this and also not impede the making etc. can as before.
That remains for the politicians, not without consequences. You are in opinion polls and elections punished vigorously. Not only that, more often they are confronted directly with the anger of the people-oriented, it was in talks with detailed letters of complaint or, more generally, by demonstrations and initiatives against their policies. Social tensions are there and in the light of draconian and unfair measures they begin not only to other indebted countries to discharge, but also with us.
It is quite clear: The decision to charge the citizens of tough measures to spare but the crisis causes and its own clientele largely fueling not only to social conflicts. It also ensures the stability of governments to the test and is a danger to their re-election. For what has happened in Iceland, namely that government, head of banking supervision and had to withdraw central bank president as a result of the banking disaster and the consequent impact of pressure from the population , which can also in all other states happen if the public suddenly becomes clear what it means specifically for them for the damage of other injury to have to stand straight.
more, see the cases of Iceland and Greece, that the public against draconian measures blocked not only because they will eventually charge the wrong people, but also because they can not see how the country could be led by the misery and out of the crisis. Undoubtedly, the opportunities to have success, not all equally good. But of course there is also a question of suffering. The Icelanders in any case have rejected the plan the new government for compensation payments to the UK and the Netherlands, amounting to almost EUR 4 billion for cheated customers of bankrupt Icelandic bank Icesave previous . They refuse to pay for the failures of the previous government and keep the loads imposed by the creditor nations too high.
But Iceland is a tiny country. The same can be expected to achieve in large states so unlikely. The anger of the victims, that the citizens should, however, this weakness only increase further.
All the politicians should also be in the Member States of the European Union now become clear. Against this background, a desired especially France and Germany, European economic government a chance. You can also, depending on the shape, become a risk to the EU.
The chance is that Member States can find a constructive solution to Europe way back to growth and can find employment. However, this is a Herculean task. Because it means two problems to solve, since the slide into crisis has not yet found a solution state. can not have
The bank bailouts and the Fed action combat the causes of the financial market crisis and this crisis as a consequence, not stop permanently, but only temporarily alleviate : First. The increasingly shaky U.S. real estate market and the near collapse of European markets in early May shows this clearly. Still here slumber huge financial risks, which could not be removed. In addition, there are just in the banking sector unresolved structural problems, such as due to the size of banks (Too Big To Fail) and the type of transactions (in traditional banking business and investment banking). More so now - not least as a result of action taken (State Aids and public debt, the flood of liquidity, low interest rate policy) - Added significant new risks and the risk of new bubbles, and a further tightening of financial market crisis is again grown considerably.
Second the world, opened in the sum of giant fiscal stimulus again, the existing structural problems in the real economy, such as excess capacity and purchasing power, weak demand, not solved. You have only glossed over it by the state is stepped. Running the world taken from government stimulus measures, then these problems will resurface and be worse than before. This showed, for example, after the expiry of the scrapping in Germany already clear. Sales in Germany was , especially in those models that could benefit from the scrapping. Only the export is still good . The slight recovery in the real economy, the stated media attention for some time, it is essentially a series of financial governmental incentive measures adopted, and therefore not sustainable.
It should have been clear: This used state funds that do not address the causes fizzle need. What is certain also dissolve save with these problems as well.
What does a European economic government for growth and employment is a viable economic policy plan, or at least a viable economic policy model on which economic policy can be based in the Member States. But: What will they do? This question is unanswered - in fact it was not even challenged. It is also not likely that they will be in the foreseeable future in the center of European aspirations, as long as only one side is due to reorganization and stabilization of public finances and fiscal austerity measures, capital increases of the question. And the belief in health savings seems currently to be very strong. increase
savings and taxes are tasks to be solved for politicians much more easily than in the current crisis situation for the causes of the crisis to seek to eliminate them and also for the entire European Union economic policy plan for sustainable growth and to develop employment. For the government it could face that and the knowledge that savings plans trigger in the population violent defensive reactions, which should be reflected accordingly in the elections to be quite tempting, under the label of "EU economic government" is responsible for national savings programs just a little way to pass on to the EU. For citizens, there would then ostensibly the impression that the targets that ultimately lead to national cuts, came from the EU economic governance in Brussels - even if the vote would not bear this out. For in this case, as in many other cases of decisions taken at European level, governments have the final say. That is: Without her consent is nothing!
The EU would thus be one with a kind of "saving police" reduced EU economy as a scapegoat for a government of national governments wanted and made himself adopted austerity policies.
Therein lies the risk of an EU economic government for the EU. For it would amount to, that would be highly dangerous for the entire European integration project. The governments would then force the citizens resistance and rejection of the European Union for trying to extremes to free themselves from the risk of failed their voters for a political crisis and for high, as drawn unfairly burdens viewed from savings decisions to be directly responsible, just as was the case in Iceland.
The temptation to make the EU as a scapegoat, are governments in recent years, unfortunately succumbed all too often. That they may have in principle correct, because with appropriately-placed events for all beneficial project of European integration among the citizens brought into disrepute. The failed referendums on the European Constitution in France and the Netherlands, which brought about the failure of the constitutional project, as well as the subsequent rejection of the Treaty of Lisbon in Ireland work in the first Starting to show what damage has been done so for the EU already. The outrage at the Greece-Aid, which is really only a disguised recent bank bailout represent , is now added. One to a "saving police" reduced EU economic government is not an appropriate step towards stabilization and development of the euro area and the EU. You may, however, would be the beginning of the end of the European integration project.
