. . . hurray, the crisis is over, the recovery is here! With impressive 3.2 percent, or even 3.4 Percent economic growth - at least according to a matching view of the leading economists and the Federal Government. What price was paid for the time being primarily seen elsewhere.
How much the picture has changed.
subjected How amicably governments after the collapse of financial markets and the world economy is still in the same direction - at least as far as the immediate rejection of the worst. Billion packets have been everywhere in the leading and most seriously affected by the crisis countries for the rescue of banks, stabilizing the financial system and then put together for the economic boost. And the central banks continuously pumped enormous amounts of money in the markets and lowered the key interest rates toward zero - although it seemed to matter that has exactly this approach contributed to the emergence of the financial market crisis considerably.
After the real causes are not sought. There were just thick issued checks - at the expense of taxpayers. No one cared of, no government had serious doubts about the meaningfulness of the measures. Everyone believed, given the problems in this way under control.
It is celebrated for the delivery of global financial market and have saved the world economic system.
No one believes more seriously now that the Governments succeed in the financial market players really refer to the lists. You really do not do them seriously hurt, it is indeed a matter not to impair their international competitiveness. So are they prepared for new turbulence? Can they do this early stage to avert? This is questionable. After all, the EU has the beginning of May to capture the debt crisis triggered by Greece again - but again with a lot of money and a further easing of monetary policy.
But at least since the Greek crisis is clear that the problems are not solved, but at extremely high costs simply by the banks and the economy shifted to the level of the States was - at least in part. The Greece-rescue was a banking rescue. Nevertheless, it is fermented - from well-known reasons - in the financial markets again dangerous. And apart from the emerging markets of Germany and the intermediate high, the economy languishes down in the leading states still ahead. The outlook is not encouraging. After the economic packages expire gradually.
The problems have since the outbreak of the financial crisis does not become smaller. Recently, however, there is disagreement around the world, what to do to get out of this mess again. If the States represented in the government debt for bank rescue and recovery measures dizzying Heights have driven savings, or spend even more money to get the economy going?
The disagreement represents a turning point dar. From now on, be pursued different paths of national crisis management - every man for himself - and it is certain that this will not contribute to global economic stability. Once so do not hurt because uncoordinated and therefore just partially conflicting concepts of national crisis, the systemic global economic concerns. Furthermore, but also because all clear is whether the respective crisis procedures will be successful, that is, whether they bring the economy back on track.
Finally, we see that already was the first round of measures experimental in nature, as the economists were able to address the problems contributing nothing really enlightening. Something convincing, Trend-setting comes from the economists still can not. Within the central banks there is disagreement for weeks and often dispute about the right course. It can be interpreted as uncertainty. Similarly, the leading economic researchers, despite the known enormous risks for financial markets and world economy, in terms for example of the economic growth forecast for Germany exactly the same - as if the future is as safe as the Bank of England.
The reality however is completely different: in France, prevail because of protests against the austerity policies and economic poli-tical price of Nicolas Sarkozy chaos. China is afraid of bubbles and inflation and worries about social peace. Shortly before the congressional elections, the U.S. offers an eerily unfamiliar, of strife, disorientation and Hoffnungslsoigkeit embossed image. Japan is fighting just as desperately but unsuccessfully against the high yen exchange rate against the deflation and the economy dümplende to himself - are placed more and more stimulus packages, the public debt rises. The liberal-conservative British government David Cameron choose now the opposite direction, that of the drastic savings: about 91 billion euros will be saved in the next few years, everywhere is radically reduced and removed. How this is received by the population remains to be seen. The pictures angry citizens of Iceland, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain and France, which do not pay for the messed up politics and the disaster wrought by banks, we know.
It is realistically it unlikely that any country can save in the prosperity - and that applies to the United Kingdom as well as Iceland and Greece. Heinrich Brüning tried the first in the world economic crisis and has failed. On the other hand, it has functioned as little to overcome the current crisis in the financial and global markets in Keynesian fashion by the supply of money. This was prevented only worse, but from a sustainable growth path, we are still far away.
It would be far from the time logically draw from this the conclusion that in the present situation neither continuing "deficit spending" can really help save even more draconian. Obviously, the root causes of the continuing crisis have not been properly recognized. Only when this happens, it will probably succeed the right medicine to create and overcome the crisis.
Instead, heralded the next round of experimentation. Now it is no longer about spending money, but about saving.
Ireland and Greece have already made their experience with the savings and it does not look good for the economy. Now, however, with Britain, where the first major economy to start for an extreme austerity measures and the consequences will be prosecuted world very closely. David Cameron says that would alter-tivlos. Keynes's "Out" - that is the message. The Japanese government has for months, the opposite course, to the costly economic stimulus, and maintains that - of course - the right approach. The U.S. is once again torn between these two possible solutions. It probably also the outcome of the congressional election will change nothing. But maybe this is even an advantage. After all, gives them the opportunity to choose a new, third solution. Whether they do so, however, is more than questionable. To this end they have to find him once, too, right?
overview of recommended more posts on this blog
The basic explanation of the root causes of the crisis and the expected failure of Keynesian and liberal concepts as well as the attempt to solve the crisis mainly to the monetary policy side:
The basic explanation of the root causes of the crisis and the expected failure of Keynesian and liberal concepts as well as the attempt to solve the crisis mainly to the monetary policy side:
- economics blog: Antort of "Veblen" (v. 27.04.09)
- neoliberalism in crisis: From the liberal market-liberal economists and politicians mistake (v. 21.06.09)
- The crisis of economists II: Theorielos happy? (v. 14:05:09)
- overcome the crisis: the dilemma of economists and central bankers (by 6:07:09)
- capitalism in crisis: farewell to the free market economy - Farewell to the competition? (v. 20:09:09)
- Economic and Financial Crisis: Wrong theory, wrong policy crisis (v. 17:11:09)
- financial crisis and economic system: resistance and success of lobbyists show that a free market economy there is not yet the goal is (v. 02.01.10)
- economic policy for the "National champions": success story with crisis warranty (by 4:05:09)
- Industrial Policy in Crisis: New Ways? (v. 23.08.09)
- automotive market and scrapping - an example of a misunderstanding of industrial policy and crisis (by 3:09:09)
- crisis management: Without growth and employment concept is nothing - ignored lessons of the Weimar Republic (v. 10:03:10)
- first and second Great Depression: A different situation, other measures, but the same error - History Repeating ? (v. 21.03.10)
- Why politicians for economic policy in the crisis "does not get the curve" (v. 05.10.09)
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