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If "Stuttgart 21" to symbolize all the things in politics in Germany is not right?

That has not happened for a long time. More and more people are protesting against the estimated costs in the planning with billions in ambitious, but highly controversial rail project "Stuttgart 21" to the reconstruction of the Stuttgart head station into an underground transit station.

With yesterday's launch of the demolition work on the north wing of the listed station building, the protests have reached a new peak. Sit-ins around the fence, occupation of the station roof by seven project opponents, marches through Stuttgart's streets, laid largely on media reports, the traffic in the inner city and on access roads lame and backlog up to the outskirts saw to block the departure of a TGV - offered this picture yesterday, the Stuttgart and all those citizens who attended the protests in the media. Further Protestmaß-acquisition was announced. The initiators hope to up to 50,000 participants - were yesterday they claim that around 12,000 people involved. (1)

more new information and details that speak against the realization of the project "Stuttgart 21" reach to the public. Especially this will be one of the reasons why the protests have increased in recent months, and apparently even more people actively involved.

treat Here is a selection of relevant reports, the reasons behind the protests against the construction project:

• " Swabia on the barricades ", from 08/05/2010
• " environmental office distances itself from critical advice ", from 08/12/2010
• " As the train billion in the sand is ", from 08/23/2010
• " Stuttgart-21 plan calls for building freeze ", from 08/25/2010

One is now clear: not only peak to the city's Lord Mayor Wolfgang Schuster (CDU), but the Baden-Wuerttemberg state government to Prime Minister Stefan Mappus (CDU) and the German railway advised because of the prestige project "Stuttgart 21" under increasing public pressure. Because in the light of published information, it is now difficult to understand why those responsible strive not so intensively, submitted on going arguments, concerns and worries of many citizens and professionals.

This is even more evident as each is likely that the willingness to go active for their own interests on the street, most Germans less pronounced, however this does not automatically mean that they always agree with everything are. As the spectators in the stadium and the Screens to keep their team, so why should definitely many German silent and invisible on the side of the protesters in Stuttgart. No one knows how many are just that.

formed thus increasing the impression as if it were the policy not the citizens, nor even a comprehensible, objective assessment of arguments in the run as well - if in doubt - in the review of decisions, but, no matter what wanted only to specific economic interests. Policy and Corporate contra citizens - it seems to be related to a short formula.

In protest against "Stuttgart 21" is the focal concern not only about the project itself and that might be the reason for the large nationwide interest. It is about the question of what value the common good or the totality of the citizens and the welfare of the whole economy in the active policy in Germany today really still has. There are major doubts exist on the common good of politics, not only in Stuttgart.

started this with the debate over government policy, even under highly controversial tax break for hoteliers, the federal government under its "Growth Acceleration Act" adopted in late 2009. Although "political patronage" for many years is not unusual - just think of the legions of lobbyists, in which so many ex-politicians has joined - and ultimately politicians of all established parties appropriate charges must be dropped (see my posts: "financial market crisis and economic system: resistance and success of the lobbyists ..." and "pork-barrel politics rather than common good" ), with the advantage of hoteliers first time the general public become aware of them. Since then, it is in the heads and everything that happens in politics, is against this background with suspicion.

Certainly, one can and can not lump all politicians with the same brush. However: Since is massively damaged the credibility of the politicians - in contrast, has changed nothing. "Stuttgart 21" shows just that

In this light, the protests against the rail project in Stuttgart certainly be a symbol of all that in politics - across all policy levels span, from municipal to federal politics - in the eyes of citizens is no longer and must be changed.

That is what politicians - not only in Stuttgart - should know.

More and more Stuttgarter already know it - they go on the road.

addition recommended Article:
- Agenda: Why no one stops Stuttgart 21 (v. 26.08.10);
- After fierce protests: Moscow stops controversial highway project (v. 26.08.10);
- "Stuttgart 21" gives Southwest CDU survey crash (by 1:09:10).

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German miracle recovery: The 2 Quarterly economic forecasts and the missed-disgrace

In the second quarter, the German economy grew by 2.2 percent - and experts and government officials falling over themselves formally with optimistic forecasts.

Whether Federal Minister Rainer Brüderle, regarding the of the second quarter of "growth XL" and said now in 2010 a value of well over 2 percent as possible keeps (1) whether economic research institute, which now want to raise all their forecasts significantly and banks - Commerzbank has about their Forecast raised for 2010 from 2.5 percent to 3.25 percent (2) or the Bundesbank, the current count for this year with 3 percent growth, compared to only 1.9 percent more in June (3) - all seem now to still lower growth forecasts against each other to try to beat. The latest "bid" comes from the German Industry and Commerce (DIHK), which raised its forecast for 2010 from the current 2.3 percent to 3.4 percent. (4)

In the weekly cycle, it seems, are once again changing forecasts. This time, however - in contrast to the period after the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers on 15 September 2008 - up.

The question is, what all these optimistic forecasts are really worth? Economists have now learned to understand financial markets and economy better and explain? If their forecasts become more reliable?

skepticism seems appropriate. A similar forecast was chaos, not least in the first Great Depression. (5) And what are these "economic experts", which was read as "surprised" by the economic development (in the second quarter) and "stunned" to be? (6) What would you think of a doctor who tells you after the treatment, he was surprised that they were healed? An economic development of the "economist surprised" - that is a contradiction in terms.

What increases the skepticism is that the reactions of experts, politicians and, yes, even by managers to the relatively high growth in the second quarter as the mirror-image of the situation at the height of the Crisis after the Lehman bankruptcy will appear.

A look back:

On 15 May 2008 headlined Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank, in its economic commentary in the online edition of the Handelsblatt: " German Q1 GDP: from crisis no trace". In the text, it leads to - in the wake of the summer of 2007 began in U.S. housing crisis and its German runners - do the following: (7)

"In the first quarter, the German economy over the last three months of 2007, a surprisingly strong growth of 1.5%. The entrance to the year 2008 was so well that we are raising our growth forecast for the year from 1.8% to 2.4%. While early indicators show the falling out that growth should slow in the coming months. . But everything points to a soft landing of the German economy "

After September 15, 2008, the day the Lehman collapse, this prediction was only waste - just like the others by all economists and . Economic Research Institutes Almost on a weekly basis, the growth forecasts for the German economy was still before the bank had been quite optimistic, revised down - it was a Überbietungswettlauf down .

example, had the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) or predicted in mid-November 2008 for the fourth quarter of 2008, a growth of 0.2 percent over the previous quarter. In early December, it corrected the value to minus 0.3 percent down. The same happened with the forecasts for 2009. In September 2008, around the Rhine-Westphalia Institute for Economic Research (RWI) for 2009, with GDP growth of 0.7 percent was expected in early December it expected a decline of 2 percent - and was more pessimistic than many other economic researchers . (8) put the Ifo Institute in Munich with a decline of 2.2 percent after. (9)

A similar picture was also chaotic in the economic expectations of the banks: for example, expected in early December 2008, Commerzbank, the German economy could shrink in 2009 more than the previously projected 1.2 percent, while the former chief economist of Deutsche Bank, Norbert Walter, the head of the pessimists, and even put a drop in gross domestic product (GDP) of up to 4 per cent predicted. (10) was In comparison, almost optimistic at this stage, the growth forecast by the Bundesbank, which counted for 2009, but still with a downturn in the 70s. out in numbers suppressed, this meant a decline in GDP of 0.8 percent - still in June 2008 it was predicted for 2009 GDP growth of 1.4 percent. (11)

the same time, it was reported in the press about a Regierungsmemo, therefore, consider the Federal Ministry of Economics and an economic slump of 3 percent in 2009 for "not unrealistic". (12)

The forecast chaos finally led the DIW President Klaus Zimmermann to the helplessness of the economists' term-making proposal to give some time to entirely on economic forecasts. (13) But also broke out again only new dispute among economists. Not (14)

only that all these forecasts proved in retrospect to be wrong - the German economy shrank by 5 percent in 2009, ultimately. It was because of the wrong predictions, but above all due to the language of economists and confusion regarding the causes and dealing with the crisis, the politicians with the problems largely alone and let them seek their salvation in experimenting (15 ) to a Debattein the media (16) , blogs (17) (18) , especially but also in economics itself (19) . This debate shook the very foundations of economics in and it continues today, even if it receives in the media and blogs for months, not nearly the same attention as in the recent heyday of the crisis.

Sure, there were some experts who have warned of the disaster on the U.S. housing market that began in the summer of 2007 and advised the first German bank IKB into difficulties and later, after the Lehman bankruptcy, the financial markets and the economy come to the brink of collapse left. You have not heard or simply smiled as prophets of doom. But leading economists all that came, did not foresee, and what is more serious: they had to counter all of nothing.

Daranhat in principle unchanged. The problem has been solved by economists not. It occurs even more strongly now in the foreground, the controversy on the question of whether there are new economic programs or drastic saving programs in the right step or everything will only make it worse. Saxon neo-Keynesian economic mainstream contra - the old beat-abtausch continues and it does it show more clearly that two losers fighting a losing battle, because both seek to bring still their ancient teachings of the man but in fact, no suitable explanation for the crisis, not be correct, concerned forecasts and no real solution to offer. It is therefore likely that the problem of language and confusion of the economists will again become the focus once again significantly worsened the crisis.

This can happen very quickly - despite the strong second quarter in Germany, the current island of apparent economic bliss. The technical reason for this lies in the closely networked global economy and in the computerized global financial market. The real problem is the consequent vulnerability and even latent instability of the global economic system and the fact that the destabilizing risks are now more numerous than ever before. There are many festering problem herd. Everyone is individual as a potential trigger for new, severe turbulence are: for Beispielsweisedie the real estate markets in the U.S. and in China, the problem of bad loans in China, the precarious public debt in various countries, the risk of a relapse of the U.S. economy into recession, social conflicts - such as in China, but also as a result of draconian austerity packages, such as Greece, the bursting of possible new financial bubbles - in the light of such high prices would be this among others of gold or other commodities to think. presents For Germany, the high export dependence, such a risk dar.

Against this background, an explanation for the jubilation of experts, politicians and, yes, even managers of the positive second quarter for the German economy is obvious: they are world champions in repression.

addition recommended articles:
- William R. White to risks in the global economy: "Then it comes to global event" (v. 26.08.10);
- The Capital: Obama disavowed the economists (by 7:09:10).

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U.S. labor market and economy and so-called success stories - appearance and reality

800 million liters - so much oil has flowed, according to official estimates, since the sinking of the oil rig Deepwater Horizon "in the Gulf of Mexico. BP has now closed claims to the oil leak on the seabed. Promptly announced the U.S. government, citing its own experts, 75 percent of the oil would flow out already gone, would have virtually dissolved. Just like that. (1)

14.6 million - this is currently the official number of unemployed in the United States. This represents an unemployment rate of 9.5 percent. (2)

40.8 million - that is the current number of Americans who are on food stamps by the U.S. government, specifically the Ministry of Agriculture, instructed. Requirement for the need: unemployment. (3)

26.6 percent - that would be the equivalent of the current U.S. unemployment rate when the number was 40.8 million recipients of food stamps is the "true" number of unemployed.

403 - this is the current number of U.S. billionaires. In no country in the world there are more billionaires. (4)

40 - the current number of U.S. billionaires who have the initiative by Bill Gates and Warren Buffet even offered their services is to donate at least half of their assets for social and charitable purposes. (5)

This is the American reality. She has two faces. This is America, the land of opportunity - for part of the Americans. This is America, the land that is crashed into the wall - at the expense of the rest and to the detriment of the whole.

This is not the reality that we Government and the media pretend to join forces and get the stock and commodity prices continue to cheer banks, stock brokers and investors can.

other hand: Does it look when viewed in somewhere else really that much better? In Japan, where the yen is rising, despite more threatening-exclusive economic situation with declining production, declining export growth (6) , continuous fall in prices, high unemployment and a disastrous financial situation with a debt of close to 200 percent of gross domestic product? (7) Or in China - with its real estate bubble (8) , according to official data loans at risk of failure in a volume of 171 billion €, while Standard & Poor's expects the next few years even with the loss of credit in the amount of up to 300 billion €? (9) China, with its million-strong army of unemployed migrant workers and threatening social conflicts smoldering in his region?

And if that is not the case, then why break into singing and media professionals from storms over the seemingly grandiose German economic and political crisis over the German, the very dependence on export-coined "success"? And also: How much of the current success of the German economy due to one-off effects of government stimulus injection, how much of the weakness of the controversial USA tottering giant, which Germany currently does as a destination for investors and investors seem so attractive - not least those from the Gulf States?

40.8 million Americans are likely to date to be totally convinced of it, that that claim in recent years and currently relevant politicians, economists and central bankers of the country of the (people) understand economy or at least very much less than they do.

In other words: 40.8 million beneficiaries of food stamps - that's the price for disguising of incompetence and ignorance, for a parallel world of liberal economics and Keynesian-cal economists who knows to explain and resolve the problems contributing nothing.

For bank rescue and stimulus packages have can not help it. The economic and employment situation remains delicate. They will not do anything about it because they do not attach to the causes. The many do not want to see and call instead for still more government assistance. Of draconian austerity packages, required by liberal representatives can not alter the underlying problems nothing - that do not believe those in favor.

Change will do, unfortunately, nor is the generous donations pledged so far 40 U.S. billionaires. If everything goes on as before, then the assets that they want to donate for social and charitable purposes, in the end end up with them again. Exactly as before.

Europe and especially the Germans are better off.

How long? There

For similar problems, it also here - not least due to the often standard practice, all that is made in the USA to copy. And just as in the U.S., they are more or less successful in hiding behind a facade. Added to the extremely sensitive dependence comes from exports. The current strength of the German states, moreover, at least in part from the weakness of others. break

a reason this country in jubilation about the seemingly grandiose economic and political crisis, there is not so. The crisis is not over yet met, it was. It speaks for sober reflection, the evidence suggests that with the billions that have been for the rescue of banks and for the world Kunjunkturankurbelung spent, just a flash fire could be kindled. A straw-fire, which currently may only Nowhere else is burning as bright as ours, but goes out in the foreseeable future. This possibility has to take into account and also the experience gained from the crisis that it may at any time very soon come to a dramatic order-spirited and crash. At least the market players see this is why the stock markets remain shaky.